Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. Yes. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Biden Job Approval on Issues. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Timmy! Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. With the prospect that abortion could soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they have an unwanted pregnancy. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. The reelection races of Sens. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Doug Jones (36) Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. Buy It Now. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Perhaps the biggest news in the poll is the rise of Michels, who announced his run for governor in late April, too late to be included in the April MU p0ll which last measured the governors race. ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. -36. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) Independent Sens. The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. Quantity: Last One. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. The poll, whose . I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. The Supreme Court Not So Much. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . 772 days 4 . Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. 2023 www.jsonline.com. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden.